Friday, July 9, 2010

Android will have more Apps than iPhone by Jan 2011

On July 7th, AndroLib reports that Android has over 82,000 applications (61.9% Free) while Apple comfortable lead with 226,782 active apps reported by with Apple having a significant jump this past month.

Though, when you analyze the underlying data, using a logarithmic curve to account for  exponential growth, an interesting trend shows up (observe the graph on the right).   Projection show that Android stands to overtake iPhone in number of Apps, sometime in January if the trends continue as they have the past year.
Apple has four times as many developers compared to Android.  Interesting to note that Google and Android developers seem to be more productive than Apple developers.

Indeed, in order to obtain the quality seen in iPhone applications, more time is required. Though the observed productivity difference can't just be attributed to this fact.

It would be interesting to determine if  Apple's approval process may be the reason why productivity between both camps is considerably different.

Either way, Android will most likely overtake iPhone Applications some time in 2011.  This coupled with the issues observed by some with Apple 4G has taken luster away from Apple's main source of revenue.

Apple decided to barely matched Android features this year, instead it opted to provide others like retina display and a limited version of multitasking.  This may become a critical issue down the road, specially when Apple fans suggest Android features are a main part of their wish list.

Apple is facing tough competition from Android on many fronts:
  • Innovation 
  • Applications
  • Quality
  • Security
and it should address concerns of its fan based or it risks loosing the market share and stronghold it once held.


  1. Fragmentation is the android market back, just a bit. I think that would spur the upswing.

  2. Well I have almost all the apps I want. All about 20 of them. That's all of 0.0002%.
    I'd take the 5,000 most amazing apps ever made over millions of apps.

    The fact is that I can and will never download 100,000 apps. At the point you have all the apps you could reasonable use the rest is just marketing and fluff.

    I love Android and I see no competitor. But it's the top end phones, freedom, openness, the about 30 apps I might need and 20 I do need that make it perfect for me. 100,000 apps... Whatever!
    220,000+ apps for the iPhone - whatever...

    I have never and will never own an iPhone because technically it's not as good as Android phones.
    3GS was up against the N1 and Desire, the iPhone 4 sucks and I don't see, and never have seen, apple as a technical leader.

    Both offer the apps I want and need and I just can't find the door into steve jobs' walled garden. I walked into the Android park quite easily...

    Much Android love,

  3. Does a logarithmic scale make sense in this context?

    It makes the difference between the two look trivial, while Apple still has more than double Android's apps!


  4. Android has SWYPE, Apple doesn't. Android has User interface customization, Apple doesn't. Android had multi tasking from the beginning. Apple finally got it. Android had copy and paste from the start. Apple finally got that as well. Need I say more?