Friday, July 9, 2010

Android will have more Apps than iPhone by Jan 2011

On July 7th, AndroLib reports that Android has over 82,000 applications (61.9% Free) while Apple comfortable lead with 226,782 active apps reported by with Apple having a significant jump this past month.

Though, when you analyze the underlying data, using a logarithmic curve to account for  exponential growth, an interesting trend shows up (observe the graph on the right).   Projection show that Android stands to overtake iPhone in number of Apps, sometime in January if the trends continue as they have the past year.
Apple has four times as many developers compared to Android.  Interesting to note that Google and Android developers seem to be more productive than Apple developers.

Indeed, in order to obtain the quality seen in iPhone applications, more time is required. Though the observed productivity difference can't just be attributed to this fact.

It would be interesting to determine if  Apple's approval process may be the reason why productivity between both camps is considerably different.

Either way, Android will most likely overtake iPhone Applications some time in 2011.  This coupled with the issues observed by some with Apple 4G has taken luster away from Apple's main source of revenue.

Apple decided to barely matched Android features this year, instead it opted to provide others like retina display and a limited version of multitasking.  This may become a critical issue down the road, specially when Apple fans suggest Android features are a main part of their wish list.

Apple is facing tough competition from Android on many fronts:
  • Innovation 
  • Applications
  • Quality
  • Security
and it should address concerns of its fan based or it risks loosing the market share and stronghold it once held.